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Will Isis destroy Palmyra


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This would be impossible, as Turkey would likely force a political fissure throughout NATO, and could very well lead to an exit. Obama isn't exactly on good terms with Erdogan in Turkey, or Netanyahu in Israel, and if Turkey turns on us, we lose a vital resupply route into Iraq, not to mention the Peshmerga would begin to faulted.

 

Turkey is more opposed to Assad than to ISIS. It appears, at least Biden and Kerry within the Obama administration thinks so, that they were early funders and coordinators for ISIS. They have been remarkably slow to react to them at the very least.

 

And it would take more than one alchemist. Several hundred. Luckily, our secret service isn't just a political protection force, but also (for whatever quirky historical reasons I won't go into) a anti- counterfeiting taskforce within the treasury department. They keep every note and coin they have found since the civil war that has been faked, and has extensive bios on the best past counterfeiters out there, as well as background understandings of just how their operations work. In a sense, we have several hundred alchemists on file, and can pick and choose as we see fit and vary the techniques as ISIS moves to adapt, much like the Borg.

 

I recommend personally highly polished, treated metallic alloys, balance the weight of the heavy inner core to a more mallible outercore. If it is shiny like gold, and weighs as much as gold, it will put a significant strain and doubt on merchant and smuggling operations. They will be forced to guarantee it with foreign currency reserves, which leads a paperwork trail, and auditors. Its never pretty, and inflation kicks in very rapidly once everyone starts to doubt the money supply. Hoarding starts, and with price controls, the items sold at below market cost are taken by everyone, if they need it or not. This produces a black market, and intelligence gathering possibilities as ISIS is no in sole control of its money supply.

 

Its a lot easier to airdrop a box full of fake coins on a village to corrupt it, allowing for a degree of independence and intelligence gathering possibilities, not to mention building up a independent mafia, than blowing up some crappy footsoldiers sitting in a bunker trying to fool UAV sensors into thinking it is a command bunker.

 

Snatching control of the grain supply in Iraq prior to harvest should be of high priority. Assad wanted to destroy it last fall, but was stopped. The international crossing between Raqqa and Mosul is the easiest route, though admittedly there is nothing but dirt roads between it and the Euphrates (counted them on Google earth last year).

 

If the grain harvest is controlled, we can more or less break Raqqa without a seize or destroying the city. Due to international standards on what constitutes crimes against humanity, we can't outright deny the food, but nor do we have to let ISIS distribute it. We can offer it at camps isolated from a water supply, and airdrop leaflets over Raqqa saying where the food is at, and that if anyone is hungry, the UN mission will feed them.

 

ISIS would be torn between forceably holding a city of over a million starving people in place, or letting a sizeable portion go, including undoubtedly some of its own forces to eat and wait.

 

Lots of things can be done using minimal force, that are smarter in the long run. Damascus was more or less completely destroyed in several neighborhoods from fighting. Its really stupid to destroy a city if we can systematically manipulate ISIS into unraveling themselves. Any strong barrier or blockade within Raqqa to keep the people from leaving, seeking food, can be effectively targeted from the air. Our every military effort could be aimed at getting food to the Syrians, via that international border crossing, just as the UN mandate currently dictates..... to the letter. ISIS loses population. ISIS loses economic fluidity, end up with a barter and multiple currency economy, which will make paying soldiers very awkward.

 

As ISIS currency is default war contraband, I see no moral reason not to. Any merchants burned in such transactions shouldn't of been trading with them in the first place.

 

Its odd, we have several thousand years of recorded warfare, and the impulse is always to strike head on, clashing spears and shields first and last, results be damned, than utilizing knowledge collected about the weaknesses of various systems, and exploiting them. I don't think ISIS is nearly sophisticated enough in its financial policies to survive a simultanious collapse of its market and grain supply. Oh.... We happen to have enough chinooks to rapidly ferry several battalions of Iraqi soldiers north come fall to do the snatch operation. It would be very interesting to see where, which cities, ISIS would rush its garrison out of to attempt to stop this. Bombs away. Its not possible to supply such a population from back road smugglers alone. We will have the food, and the water.... come to us.

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Only a fool would think that Turkey is still an ally. It is about time to get rid of this traitor in the NATO or at least support a military coup to get rid of Erdogan. When it really counts, Turkey would refuse to have their bases and airspace used.

 

Faking gold, although theoretically possible, is extremely difficult and not practical. All alloys with the same or a higher specific weight are also extremely expensive, usually more expensive than gold itself. The only metal that I can think of would be depleted uranium. It would be cheaper but more difficult to handle during manufacturing of the coins.

Your approach is unrealistic and only works for paper currency. The IS was quite clever with the introduction of its currency. There is neither a way to refuse its international acceptance nor to counterfeit it.

 

Supporting Assad is the only viable solution. He has always been tolerant towards religious minorities, more than any other country in the region. He is a civilized and reasonable man with a modern attitude. And he is the only one with the ability to succeed, if he gets a little support. Having him as an ally would make Turkey superfluous. However Russia would probably have something to say here.

 

Are we supposed to feel relieved now that the amphitheater has been put to some use again?

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If you choose to feel relieved, it up to you. This is about as close to supporting the arts as ISIS will get.

 

Turkey is worth far more even as a dysfunctional ally than cutting ties with it.

 

Reason why is many:

 

1) It gas territory in Europe as well as Asia Minor, and sits along the oath of NATO wide force projection avenues.

 

2) They have the second largest military in NATO, and its already compatible with other western militaries. If they got put out into the cold, any coalition or bloc they would join would have a massive technological gain, and would very quickly gain the ability to do competent ground maneuvers.

 

3) A hundred years ago, Turkey lead armor units deep into central Asia in a effort to forestall the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Their territory is a essential launching point for sustainable strikes deep into Russia's back yard. An example being, in the current Ukraine crisis, we would do a pincher movement from Turkey and Central Europe, not just Europe if we decided to take the Russians out.

 

4) They gave a lot of coalition muscle, being a Islamic majority country, and have ethnic ties with the Caucasus diaspora, as a lot of refugees flooded their territory last century. As of late, Turkey has been systematically exploiting the monetary and cultural influence of its new minorities on their home countries in the same way the US uses its multiculturalism and ethnic minorities to bond and influence our home countries. This us going to be essential later on in this century as Russia further collapses, there will be potential for expansion into former Russian Federation Territories as the Russian Birth Rate continues to plumet and they start to lose outlying territories more and more. Yes.... I'm looking that far ahead.

 

5) By losing Turkey, which intact DOES have the second largest military in NATO, and one well practised and to a degree battle hardened, we would be moving the EU defense parameter to Greece and Bulgaria/Romania. We lose control of the sealane between the Med and the Black Sea. We would have to substantially increase our Naval and military presence in Southern Europe, and many worthless (far more worthless than Turkey) worthless NATO countries would find themselves much closer to the frobtlines, at a time when Europe is intellectually and ethically disintegrating. There are natural ebbs and flows to every civilization, and European civilization is doing the kicking chicken dance right now every time it comes into contact with the needs for increased Federalism. Its been getting rather backwards and assinine there, so we can savely say its an ebb. They aren't exactly at their intellectual best, and thrusting new identity issues and external pressures on them is a bad idea. Furthermore, Turkey.... if it allies with Russia, has a lot of South-East European pull with discontent populations who notice they aren't benefiting nearly as much from the EU/Euro mess as much as Belgium or Germany, or likely will within the next few generations.

 

I can point out many reasons more why we should keep Turkey around. Yes, they can be shitheads, bug they are our sgitheads, and they do a lot more than it appears at face value. They likely will have a coup here soon against Erdogan anyway eventually, he is by many behavioral measures a paranoid schitzophrenic a little too in love with power. He assumes Pennsylvania, but more than likely its going to be the guys just down the hall. This happens in Turkey.

 

We really can't ally with Assad,as he is a war criminal. He has killed hundreds of thousands, used chlorine barrel bombs dropped from helicopters, etc.

 

So his dynasty is more or less screwed. But, this doesn't mean another faction or splinter group holding a regional territory won't approach Erdogan and say it wants to open up talks for an alliance. If this happens, the rest of the Syrian government will chuck Assad very fast, once they see a light at the end of the tunnel. Turkey and Iran already are on talking terms, and Turkey doesn't feel as threatened by them, as Iran couldn't realistically do much to it, but Turkey could seriously fracture Iran (Persians as a ethnic group only stand at under a quarter of the Iranian population). Iran therefore has a limited projection of force, and always to the south of Turkey. In other words, Turkey can compromise, with Iran and even a new Syrian president replacing Assad, but not Assad itself. Too boot, neither can the US much live with Assad at this point. Were more or less stuck letting nature take its course.... Assad might survive with a rump kingdom around Damascus, but just as likely not.

 

When setting up international alliances, you have to pay attention to the threat matrix each player in the theater is looking at the world in.

 

I've made posts about the Rajamandala on this site, it is a tool to calculate generally in any given system which states will ally or war with. It was developed by the ancient Indian philosopher Chanakya, who lived during and fought against Alexander the Great. A very intelligent man.

 

If we Ally with Assad, we would lose in the greater scope- most sunni nations would be infuriated. ISIS would rapidly expand to those states on propaganda grounds alone, even if we patch up Syria. The Shia power base we would ally with, as well as the Russian, would remain antagonistic, and would crumble via natural decline over the next three generatiins. Essentially, worthless allies.

 

Its better to allign the current matrix of international players involved in this so we maximinize our long term strategic needs, in solidifying our current alliances, expanding to include key crucial States that will act as buffers to current allies, and demilitarizing and making more friendly neutral and hostile countries.

 

When you do this, there is a much smaller chance of a world war breaking out. Look at Russia, its ability to project force into Hungary is gone.... It could pull that off easy two generations ago. I doubt it could hold up to a two front war today. Two generations from now, certainly not.

 

I like old enemies going away. I like new allies. I'm a very simple person, such things make me happy. It makes a world war much less likely to happen, and if it somehow did none the less, we would unlikely be on the losing end.

 

Were just dealing with some inherited, very old problems in the middle east. They had to be dealt with eventually. If we play it wrong here, we will have to watch hundreds, if not millions more surfer over the next few generations. So at the very least, we should look for forcing certain positive changes that improves the long term chances for success on all sides, over just impulsive short term reasoning and gains. This is a good time for problem solving. We can make more peaceful civilizations arise from this. Productive societies, who's kids are less oppressed and better educated and nourished. I like that idea.... a lot.

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I just realized I never posted my response to your depleted uranamium answer.... The atomic weight of uranium is well higher than that of gold, so it wouldn't pass muster sizewise, and in the US there are only a handful of mills qualified to handle it (one about ten miles from here, submarine hulls).

 

Conterfiet gold occurs often enough, and its a major pain for gold sellers, as a variety of techniques are needed to detect it, a major swiss bank had a scandle a few months ago for falling for it.

 

Its illegal for US citizens to engadge in counterfeiting a foreign currency, and it is considered fraud to fake gold for sale as the real thing.... but it would be quite easy to pull off several varieties. The goal is to more or less hold up and choke merchants who would have to test it, to see if the good and silver is legit. A number of techniques historically rose.... weighing and cutting into it.... ways around both.

 

It is in fact harder to collapse a paper, national currency..... North Korea tried it, and more or less failed. They printed out billions via Office 108, and distributed it across Southeast Asia via their restaurant chain. Most paper US dollars there are fraudulent, but had an unexpected effect in propping up the banking system in those countries..... the money can't be given to international banks, who simply won't take it in transfers, so the lower local banks suck it up, and it bounces around mafias and small business owners, giving the local population unexpected liquidity during a global depression. Ironically, while Kim Jung Il was doing this, was about when Bush and especially Obama started taking out massive trillion dollar debts via loans (loans from China which simply didn't have any money to lend).

 

In the end, North Korea merely eased what the US government was trying to do..... increase the global money supply, and it all happened via their labor. It was funny as hell, I still laugh from it. Meanwhile, their internal currency manipulation backfired horribly.

 

Currency if reflective on national/bloc banks. Russia ties its central bank directly into its oil exports and foreign diplomatic efforts. US simply seeks to ensure a proper healthy balance between currencies. Countries like Chiba and Denmark set it to permanently reflect the dips and rises of its trade partners (Smart for Denmark, not too smart for China).

 

Simply put, the goal is to significantly disrupt ISIS capacity to field and feed its army, and its civil service corps. Once we start getting it to react, we can train it, get it to do what we want, and eventually collapse it.... or transfer it to a new government even.... though I wouldn't recommend the wisdom of any government in modern times sticking to an exclusive coin currency monetary policy.

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http://m.france24.com/en/20150601-syria-islamic-state-isis-ancient-palmyra-site-unesco-pr

 

ISIS claims it won't break the monuments at Palmyra, just the pagan statues, but Assad moved most of the statues out prior....

 

The article has a picture of the ISIS banner above the amphitheater.... as it is the most important site, I guess from a purely historical perspective, in terms of conservation, not much happened. I haven't constructed a death toll tally of various reports yet, as the battle went on for weeks, and the Iranians report Assad forces killed more than I can believe, and I simply put can't get reliable civilian and Syrian military deaths beyond what the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights release.... as a result I can't plot their course of battle in terms of fronts.

 

Needless to say, the Roman castle likely got shot up and mortared, but its a fort, not the Mona Lisa, I'm not losing any sleep over a ancient fort finding renewed life.... just no pics yet to confirm this.

 

No word yet if they rotisseried those endangered birds yet either.

 

http://www.albawaba.com

Edited by Onasander
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There is no element with the exact specific weight as gold, if you hav been looking for that. You would always mix it with lead, which has a lower weight. What you need is the heavier component. This is the expensive part. There is no way to produce counterfeit gold at a reasonable price, so you could drop it from planes.

Paper money on the other hand is easy and cheap to produce. And he North Korean attack on the US Dollar was quite successful. There are several countries now that do not accept dollar notes printed before 2000 anymore. I was quite surprised when I realized that I could not exchange half of my cash there.

Only the fact that most transactions are cashless prevents major damage to the US economy by countervfeit money.

 

What you said about Turkey is only a strong point that the issue of Constantinople cannot be considered as closed yet. The barbarians have to return Constantinople. I really do not understand why the Turks were allowed to keep Constantinople after WWI. It is outrageous. The West finally defeated the saracenes after 500 years of almost continuous struggle and they did not take back what righteously belongs to Europe and the Roman heritage. We are talking about the former imperial capital here, not about some insignificant border dispute.

With Constantinople given back to the NATO ally Greece the strategical situation would be quite different.

If the Sunni nations would be alienated by an alliance with Assad would no make much of a difference. They would stab the US in the back at an time. Furthermore the Sunni Palestinians never had any problems with Assad.

 

Calling Assad a war criminal is at the same level as the constant claims that Bush is a war criminal or Cameron. This does not even require a response.

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Assad is a actual war criminal, he repeatedly barrled bombed civilians with his helicopters, sometimes with chemical weapons. He will never be able to redeem himself. Its not just me you gotta convince, but the international community. He has become a pariah for this.

 

Reason why Turkey kept Constantinople (the Greeks had it for about a year) is because the Greek forces during/after WW1 got a little too enthusiastic trying to reclaim Asia Minor, and it caused the Turks to snap, and they launched a counterstrike against the Greeks. The Greeks couldn't defend their class, resorted to scorch earth tactics in delaying. Several hundreds of thousands were butchered in the final retreat out of Smyrna/Izmir, as well as into Syria.

 

Much of the Greek population locally here are survivors of that campaign, I have a pretty good knowledge of the layout of Smyrna from back then.

 

It was hard to even get the Alliance ships to take in and ferry the Greek refugees swimming around the boat in the harbors. Ironically, it was the Japanese (allies during WW1) who threatened to fire on other ally ships unless they start letting the survivors on board.

 

Its why the slums around Athens have a different plan and architecture.... Asia Minor Greeks.

 

Only 10,000 Greeks now live in Constantinople.

 

They have a legend that there is a room in Constantinople, held in secret since the city's fall, in which there is a statue of ArchAngel Michael holding a sword. Every year, the sword up down a little, and the eyes open. Supposedly when both are up, the end times are supposed to begin.

 

It was also common practice among the Russians flowing through the Dardennrls to have the Greek flags on display in the captain's room, in case they ever had the opportunity to sieze the city.

 

Obvious issue is, Russians tried to take the city back, and failed. The Greeks HAD the city back, and failed. Allies after WW1 had no intention to loose even more men fighting for Greek claims, or risk further upsetting the Turns, thus jeopardising their middle eastern claims. US simply never declared war on Turkey period (we have never been at war with them).

 

And duh.... You have to use different atomic weights. I said this repeatedly. Either use a heavier core (but not something insane like uranium) or alloys. And your grasp on cost here isn't reflective of actual market costs to produce this. Like I said, we bust guys doing this all the time, we only figure out something went wrong when you melt the gold down. Its clearly economic and worthwhile for the counterfeiters to do so, and we have a century and a half of technical files and actual examples on file. Your cost analysis is absurd. We can't get our missiles into their central treasury (doubt they have such a thing), so next best think is to pollute their money supply and significantly degrade it.

 

As to you having half fake bills.... sucks to be you. I'm assuming your European. Congress has been trying to figure out his to get all the legit paper money we traded to Europe back, as we still recognize it as currency. Just if a bank teller is looking at it suspicious, it is unlikely going to be taken by us. Hence my point, counterfeiting bills really doesn't hurt said country, as the money behaves more like a foreign currency instead of the targeted countries currency. Your better off using that money locally, its like musical chairs, whoever gets it last is stuck with the prize. I recommend heading to Greece ASAP and opening a account with it, I doubt they will look it over much, as its getting snatched up and sent to Germany immediately. The ECB would then transfer it to their reserves, until that time they can trade it in for new bills, or another currency via massive stacks of bills that weigh more than you. In the end, the US Treasury will just count it at its face value, then destroy real and fake alike, assigning new modern bills to replace them.

 

You might get a financial return on that deposit someday down the road if you keep your receipts. Just expect not to see much of that, or to see it converted into Drachmas, which would still be worth more than nothing.

 

Here is a article on how complicated it is to detect fake coins:http://www.coinweek.com/world-coins/canadian-coins/avoid-becoming-victim-fake-gold-coin/

 

Yiy built a absurd, undereducated labyrinth of impossibilities in regard to producing these coins, when in reality it happens quite often, and it obviously works. Large transactions would be a Hassel for ISIS, as merchants would want to check each coin, and if forced to accept them at face value, would operate at a lost and hold a grudge, which hurts ISIS if you rely on them to maintain your black market links.

 

Furthermore, the higher quality gold and silver coins would in greater quantities be sent to more important personnel. Their lives will get frustrating fast experiencing this skepticism and time delaying, if not out right rejection of their money. They would have to counter it by declaring it a Fiat Currency, which causes obvious issues, or seek to strengthen their anti counterfeiting operations, which we would adjust the next airdrop. Hard to get villagers to sign up to die for $500 a month when they just got airdropped $2000.

 

ISIS would also have to dip into its foreign currency reserves, or try counterfeiting a currency, such as the Euro or Dollar, but this would be costly for them, as simply paper fascimilies disintegrate fast, and no bank will accept them. Familial problems. The merchants will quickly abandon them in mass.

 

Start paying people with barrels of oil and grain rations? Or better yet, promisary notes for this.... and load up a truck with these notes and give it to a trader in the Sinai..... he would start cursing out the other merchant, and even if by force of arms to accept the trade, would not return for a repeat, as ISIS promisary notes for barter items are worthless.

Edited by Onasander
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It appears you misunderstood some things here.

What do I have to do with Europe and the ECB? It is not only the fake notes that are not accepted anymore in several African and Asian countries. No US Dollar note issued before 2000 is accepted there, no matter if fake or authentic. The credibility of American money itself has been severly damaged by the North Korean counterfeit attack. Of course I was easily able to exchange my pre-2000 dollar notes in Europe or the US, but this did not help me while I was travelling and had surprisingly only half of my cash that I got from my US bank available to exchange it into the local currency.

The article you quoted made it quite clear that the authenticity of these cheap fakes can easily be verified, because they they do not have the correct weight or thickness.

A good counterfeit coin would need to have the same specific weight as real gold, and this is extremely expensive. It can be done and you might be able to make a small profit of maybe 10% of the value. So if you have a big turnover you can still make money, but even the fake coins are still so expensive that you cannot afford to throw them away.

These cheap fakes with the wrong weight are like paper money produced with a copy machine. It might work in a dimly lighted room and when nobody has time to have a closer look at the notes or the coins but not as a large scale attack against the monetary system.

 

Regarding Constantinople, British warships had the harbor of Constantinople occupied after WWI. There was no reason to return the city to the saracenes. It was a short-sighted decision based on diplomatic considations of that moment without the big picture in mind.

 

If you call Assad a war criminal, because he bombed his enemies, does this also apply to Churchill, Roosevelt or Truman then? Should he have dropped teddy bears? It is not called war crime, it is called warfare.

By the way the use of poison gas has been traced back to the Saudi prince Bandar who gave it to the rebels to stage a false flag attack and to cross Obama's "red line".

Edited by C. Fabius Lupus
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A lot of stuff has been traced to him, I won't begin to excuse him or ISIS, Turkey and Qatar's hand in this, or Obama's neglect.

 

And yeah, all those leaders would qualify for war crimes. Feel free to submit your case to the ICC.

 

There are Tongs in Asia (China) that mass produce fake coins. Its not hard.... and yes, the elements are potentially expensive unless bought in bulk, which a government can do. We aren't looking for 'financial returns' but rather to significantly disrupt ISIS' economy. Its like letting a enemy bleed to death.... they will eventually implode. I do congratulate the coalition for bombing ISIS refineries from day one the air campaign started, but your not undermining the economy itself by doing this as far as ISIS recruiting is concerned.

 

Obama did figure out ISIS was maintaining itself from mass troop enlistment, with real wage payments, but his plan to just "hire" half of Syria to break ISIS is retarded for realistic reasons. However, this would fill the gap. Your essentially giving one segment (the people on the fence on joining ISIS out of economic incentive) free cash that they can try to use, and ruining (or at least complicating) ISIS dependents from supporting a family in making their money look worthless, and each coin carefully investigated in market.

 

And yes.... several devices are used to judge the authenticity of a coin. Weight, thickness, design, etc. Each requires a different instrument, as well as standardized official guides for each coin.

 

This is multiple checks per coin. Imagine trying to pull off your shopping list going through all that. Or trying to buy something more substantial.

 

In order for ISIS to guarantee a vital import, they would have to ensure in advance merchants they can know in advance trust them, and have secure enough, select/freshly minted coins. They will get safe returns on this. Everything else in the economy would quickly go to hell. People would realize there was good coins the elites used, and the questionable stuff they have, if IRS real or not, might not be accepted, despite the labor they put into getting said coinage.

 

Like I said, the counterfeit US bills more or less act as a local currency. You should of converted a portion of your currency over into the local currency first, prior to even going.

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And yes.... several devices are used to judge the authenticity of a coin. Weight, thickness, design, etc. Each requires a different instrument, as well as standardized official guides for each coin.

This is multiple checks per coin.

There is one device that can do all of this together. It is called a "hand". You can usually feel with your hand, if a coin has not the correct weight or thickness.

And if you want to be absolutely sure you put two coins next to each other and check if one is thicker. There are also scales readily available to check the weight. This is certainly easier and safer than the UV-lamps and special pens, which are in use today to verify paper bills of higher denomination at supermarkets, restaurants and shops.

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Easier and often wrong. I'm fairly certain the US government can match this hand weighing and visual inspection, as we make our own coinage.

 

However, if the coins are fake, it will become quickly apparent upon getting melted down. Merchants traveling to Turkey, Shia Iraq, Iran, Jordan, and Egypt will have to melt most of the coins down with a gold buyer present.... once it becomes increasingly obvious ISIS merchants aren't in much of a position to check the coins over, future business between the two groups will become strained. You can't trade for long internationally by threats and IOU's. How much is a promisary note worth to a distant merchant if he can't reasonably collect upon it? Like I said earlier, such notes would guarantee what? More questionable gold or silver that the merchants won't touch back home, or guarantees for barrels of oil and grain? 10 Donnies? You can only go so far with Hamid agreeing to swap with Muhammed to balance accounts with Larry and Sediq across geographical barriers and difficult to equate goods like a P2P network, especially when really good coalition spies are listening to everything.

 

Their economy will tank. They are a landlocked force. Their long term ability to even feed themselves is questionable. They can't handle problems like this well. It will have a severe impact on their ability to further recruit, much less retain, their military and civil corps.

 

They wanted to go to a gold and silver standard, fine.... but there are severe repercussions very classical noted that come with this that modern states can easily exploit with little harm in return.

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Which alloy exactly would you use in order for the gold coins not being immediately detected by having too little weight? If you answer this, I will give you the price calculation and show you that it is not viable.

You do not need to answer with an entire essay, just two words, the names of the components of this alloy.

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