The Roman history as a big ridiculous complacency discourse in the context of world demography

[Novosedoff]

Hi all,

Below is an interesting video showing the world population history starting from 1800s with further projection till 2100.

From the video it appears that the 1800s were rather an exceptional time for Europe, because 4 European countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy) would be listed among the world top 10 by population. Germany would be the last European country off the list in the beginning of 1980s (given that 77% of Russian territory lies in Asia, Russia is hardly to be counted as a fully European country).   

I like to recall this table (see next to the video) from Gregory Clark's book "Farewell to Alms" (the book itself is another complacency myth) that highlights some key world development indices. Back in 1800s Europe seemed inferior only to Asia, but since then the layout has clearly changed.  

The projection till 2100, on one hand, may seem a bit doubtful (noone really knows what awaits us out there in 10-20 years from now), but it shows 5 African countries will be in the top 10 by 2100. So I wonder, first, how plausible you find this projection? Second, how do you think Europe should respond to its diminishing role in the world, and what Europe can do for that? 🙂

Edited October 2, 2022 by Novosedoff

[caldrail]

I've noticed your agenda concerning Europe already. I would advise caution in attempting to be so prophetic as there's another Russian who's learning that making assumptions about the West is prone to miscalculation. Europe's global role is not diminishing, it hasn't broken through through national inertia yet. 

[Novosedoff]

2 hours ago, caldrail said:

I've noticed your agenda concerning Europe already. 

Perhaps you also mean Gregory Clark's agenda and James Eagle's agenda too (the last one is the author of the video). Because the discussion I've tried to raise has been lasting for at least the last 50 years, thus I am certainly not the one who started it since I ain't so advanced in my ages 😄

In fact, I am curious about the data behind the prophecy of James Eagle as much as anyone else. His video has been shared by VisualCapitalist, which is  a popular infographics portal (barely linked with "another Russian making assumptions"), mostly attended by financial professionals. Out of 300 years covered by the video, 78 (a quarter) are yet to come, so the credibility of the prophecy in question is far from being overly accepted.   Nonetheless I do understand that, given the current trends, we may expect inadequate responses from all parties involved.

 

[caldrail]

I would say the whole point is largely irrelevant. Just another self-proclaimed expert. The internet is full of them.

[Novosedoff]

3 hours ago, caldrail said:

I would say the whole point is largely irrelevant. Just another self-proclaimed expert. The internet is full of them.

caldrail, I thought you were free not to participate in this thread if you didn't like it. I mean your position (given Brexit and your earlier comments in other threads, such as "I don't like the EU") seems a bit of exaggeration if not hypocrisy. There are only 3-4 active participants regularly posting  on the whole forum, so the damage I am about to make by creating this thread is gonna be pivotal for the whole Europe because every European is gonna read the thread and be emotionally affected.   

I don't mind if the thread is shut or edited by moderators, although I personally have a very deep interest in studying the world demography and have pretty good knowledge of it too in order to support the discussion

Surely we can move on to discuss videos of pussy cats, or underwear of ancient Romans if they better fit the agenda of "Historia in Universum", but I am afraid you won't find me in those threads because they are beyond my interests.

Here is the link to the original post shared 2  days ago that inspired me to create the thread: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/global-population-300-years-by-country/

Perhaps caldrail should drop a note to James Eagle and let him know that he's been emotionally disturbed by his population projections 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Novosedoff

[caldrail]

You want to discuss this stuff? Knock yourself out. But I don't see why it matters. Mr Eagle isn't going to change the world and there's a reason why not.

[Novosedoff]

What seems to be the problem with the thread? Am I raising an unpleasant political issue in every other post that I share on this forum? How many provocative questions have I asked in 174 posts since the date of my registration ? Is there any commie agitprop stuff hidden in the music tracks that I share? Am I bringing up the issue of Ukraine when I share a video link with some population projections?  Is this forum so incredibly popular that a few thousand protesters are gonna attack an embassy in London after reading my post on demography?    

caldrail, given your unexplainable negative attitudes in this thread, I've got an impression that you are fighting demons in your own head (or, as we say in Russian, fighting your cockroaches) 🙂

Edited October 3, 2022 by Novosedoff