Dear Forum Participants,
It's nice to see that our results have provoked a lively discussion. I see that there is some confusion about what a hoard means. Basically, while it is true that groups of coins get buried for a variety of reasons, the overwhelming majority of modern finds are unrecovered emergency hoards. Other types are mixed in, but they do not change the basic statistical relationship between instability and incidence of coin hoards. Remember that we used a different approach from the traditional one. Instead of examining carefully each census datum or each hoard, we estimated a mathematical model relating the two data sets to each other, in toto. This is clearly stated in the article. If people have difficulty accessing the article, I posted a reprint on my cliodynamics site:
http://cliodynamics.info/
Check both the main article and the Online Supporting Information. For a popular account, which I checked, and from which I removed all inaccuracies (it is remarkable in how many ways science writers can get the story wrong) look here:
http://today.uconn.edu/?p=5526
Finally, the best source to consult for Roman coin hoards specifically is Michael Crawford's original article. Since it is hard to get, I posted a PDF here for your convenience:
http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/Crawford_1969.pdf
If nothing else, just read the first page. It will clear a lot of questions.
Best wishes to all,
Peter Turchin
