Palmyra’s destruction: Climate impact may have helped Romans

[guy]

 

The accepted narrative was that Palmyra was destroyed by Aurelian In AD 273 when Zenobia and her son rebelled against a weakened Roman Empire. New studies, however, suggest that climate impact may have played a significant role, also. Poor harvests may have weakened the city’s resolve and ability to defend itself.
 

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The interdisciplinary research team reconstructed the hinterland of Palmyra – the area around the city that could provide it with basic foodstuff – and used modern land-use models developed for dry and semi-dry environments to estimate the maximum productivity of the land.

They then ran the model against existing climate records to determine how much food could be produced at different points in Palmyra’s history and with what reliability. In order to do this, archaeologists, ancient historians and complexity scientists joined forces to unleash the knowledge locked in the otherwise impenetrable data.

The results showed that a long-term climatic shift towards drier and hotter climate caused a gradual decrease in agricultural yields, reaching levels barely sufficient to feed the budding population of Palmyra around the middle of the third century AD.

 

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During the third quarter of the third century, Palmyra was arguably one of the most important cities of the eastern Roman Empire. The city attracted artists, philosophers, along traders, artisans, soldiers, builders and slaves charged with ensuring the smooth functioning of this urban centre. The large population of the city thrived in the inhospitable environment of the Syrian Desert. It is clear that this city must have had a robust food production and distribution system in its hinterland that ensured its population food security levels necessary to survive grow and thrive.

The rise and fall of the Palmyrene’s Empire fall on the key period when the growing population of the city coincided with a decrease in the hinterland food production capacity and an increase in climatic variability. The repercussions for food security of this climatic shift would have been significant. The lowest point in rainfall availability is difficult to pinpoint down to a year, given the resolution of the palaeoclimatic data but it is certain to be extremely low during the mid and late third century. The fragility of Palmyra’s food supply would have forced the city to develop alternative strategies to deal with food security. It would have been a powerful incentive to take drastic and unprecedented action: the election of Odaenathus as Ras and the mobilization of an army to fight off the Sassanians and stabilise the region. Ensuring that the city’s main source of income, long-distance trade, could go on uninterrupted, and to supply the city with grain beyond what was possible through regular trade, by tribute and taxation, might have been important priorities for Odaenathus. As the crisis persisted, Zenobia’s grab of imperial power might have been motivated not only by personal and dynastic ambition but also by the need to secure the continued prosperity of her city in face of environmental pressure.

While it is not possible to prove a direct causal link between the historical events of the third century and an increased pressure on food security, it provides a compelling counter narrative that what is regarded as Palmyra’s golden age might have been anything but. Being chronically vulnerable to food shortages due to its isolated location in a marginal environment the city might have found itself in a desperate spot, which triggered an unprecedented reaction leading to historical events as described in written sources.

 

https://www.heritagedaily.com/2022/09/archaeologists-give-new-insights-into-final-blow-of-autonomous-ancient-palmyra/144774?amp

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0273241

Edited September 27, 2022 by guy

[caldrail]

The problem with this idea is that it's part of a politically correct agenda to emphasise climate change and apply it to historical events with undisguised zeal. It might be correct, I don't know, but I don't recall the Romans talking about food shortages with respect to Palmyra. I do concede that the Palmyrene Empire annexed Egypt, a major source of grain, but that might have been for other reasons too.

[caldrail]

(duplicate post)

Edited September 27, 2022 by caldrail

[caesar novus]

Linking things to climate change, sometimes dishonestly, has become key to getting funding, tenure, and attention.