Jump to content
UNRV Ancient Roman Empire Forums

Moonlapse

Plebes
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,229

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Blog Comments posted by Moonlapse

  4. M. Porcius Cato

    Posted

    Am I correct to assume that, despite these manufacturing statistics, you think that these figures are not enough to offset our trade imbalance and growing service economy? Do you think that the levels of inflation that are not reflected in government statistics have in effect inflated these manufacturing numbers in terms of actual value?

     

    I don't think that trade is unbalanced--in an ideal world, we could get $100 worth of imports for just $1 worth of exports (a pipe-dream, I know). Nor do I think that a growing service economy is bad either. More engineers designing robots and fewer people working like robots is a good thing--for workers and the economy both.

     

    The last issue is an interesting one that I haven't given much thought. The problem is how to measure inflation that doesn't show up in government statistics. However that's done, it's hard to see why the manufacturing sector in particular should be reporting inflated earnings. Shouldn't hidden inflation boost everyone's nominal bottom line?

     

    The dollar is currently sinking against commodities and other currencies. If this continues and especially if China unpegs its currency from the dollar, all of the manufactured stuff that we import and consume is going to get expensive. No matter which way I look at it, I can't rationally expect the dollar not to continue dropping in value, especially when the Fed is dropping rates. This is going to bring out the real imbalance, because we will desperately need the ability to not only manufacture our own goods to replace the ones we currently import, but make enough to export so that the US can still have a functioning economy.

     

    However, we currently don't have the up-to-date industrial infrastructure to do this (except maybe in places like Michigan), and it will require a lot of capital to create. Where do we get that capital? We are in debt, individually and as a nation, up to our eyeballs. Few people are really saving money, and those that are probably have their savings and investments in US dollars. We've already been using incredible amounts of capital from China and Japan and Saudi Arabia. What happens when they realize that they made bad investments? What happens when the dollar is no longer used as reserve currency and all that money comes back to the US?

     

    Much of the recent manufacturing growth was related to the growth of the housing bubble. There were an incredible amount of houses built where I live in the past couple of years (the view out my window is covered by cookie cutter houses almost to the horizon, the values of which are steadily dropping) and lots of people pulled equity out of their homes based on unrealistically high values in order to make home improvements (or in some cases just to consume things they didn't want to save for). Americans have a lot of personal debt, and even though the cost of that debt will become cheaper with inflation, savings and investments will also drop in value and people will have to be able to be able to pay for the increased cost of the basic living essentials like energy and food and a lot of stuff made in China.

     

    The recent GDP numbers released by the Department of Commerce are based on 0.8% annualized inflation (first line in Table 4), instead of the typical and understated ~2-3%. Yet, the dollar is near record lows against other currencies and commodity prices in dollars are near record highs. The Fed has lowered interest rates. I can't see that inflation is even as low as 3%, so what does that do to GDP growth numbers? What does that do to every other statistic that the government prints? If its hard to see why the manufacturing sector should be reporting inflated figures, is it also hard to see why inflated GDP figures should be reported when 'consumer confidence' is touted as such an important factor? After all, consumer spending constitutes about 70% of the GDP.

  13. M. Porcius Cato

    Posted

    Again, I don't see a broad problem for the economy unless the government does something really stupid like bailing out the losers who made these crappy mortgages in the first place or cranking up the Mint to paper-dollar over the losses.

    Ha! Like the government would ever do something stupid like that!

    Oh, wait ...

     

    Maybe they'll come to their senses now that everyone from Alan Greenspan to Paul Krugman (see NYT today) recognizes that a bail-out is a cure worse than the disease.

    People come to their senses? Perhaps when the coming recession is viewed in hind-sight. Alan Greenspan says smart things and does really stupid things.

     

    Am I correct to assume that, despite these manufacturing statistics, you think that these figures are not enough to offset our trade imbalance and growing service economy? Do you think that the levels of inflation that are not reflected in government statistics have in effect inflated these manufacturing numbers in terms of actual value?

  20. docoflove1974

    Posted

    Hmmm...dunno about balloons...haven't tried it with her. Why, do they 'cure' the fear of ceiling fans?

    I don't know if they cure fear of ceiling fans, but they inspire hilarious terror in my own cat. Frantic scrambling on hard surface floors, full speed running while simultaneously keeping the belly touching the ground, squeezing far into the most remote crevasse that it can possibly find. The only thing that frightens it more is a plastic grocery bag that is being waved around.

  22. Gaius Octavius

    Posted

    Problem?

     

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York once (today?) held the U.S. gold reserve and that of most of the advanced world, along with some others. Accounts were settled between these nations (Gold Exchange Standard) by physically moving gold bars from one nation's room to another's. How would accounts be settled when one nation didn't have a gold room? If both nations didn't have gold rooms? Would the U.S., Great Britain, etc., allow their reserves to be placed in another nation?

    Just because a nation doesn't have an adjacent 'room' doesn't mean gold can't be transferred. Why should the existence of a room in the same building, or lack thereof, have an absolute effect on a change of ownership of gold?

     

    How would trade exist between nations without gold reserves?

    If a nation has no gold, or no goods to exchange for gold money, how indeed?

×
×
  • Create New...